Integrate Risk Management Reviews
Risk Assessment Matrix
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&example1=A commander finds that one of his implied tasks to attack an objective involves crossing a normally shallow riverbed. After looking at the factors of METT-T, he discovers that currents are far in excess of his ability to safely ford armored vehicles due to three days of intense rain that have caused the water level to rise above flood stage. After discussing courses of action with his staff, he determines the accident risk is extremely high because of the likely probability and catastrophic severity of losing vehicles and killing soldiers. His conclusions are based on his experience with and knowledge of fording armored vehicles under the existing conditions of water depth and current speed. Click on this text box to close it.& &example2=During a preplanned ambush, the leader discovers that the force he intends to ambush has significantly more combat power than his own force can accommodate. He realizes that he could only delay rather than destroy the enemy. He knows his casualty estimates would be very high if the enemy reorganized and counterattacked. He also knows that the size of the enemy force could seriously impact adjacent units conducting a movement to contact. He determines the situation is high-risk because he estimates (based on his training and experience) there is a likely probability of the enemy reorganizing and counterattacking, and the severity of loss to his unit would be critical. Click on this text box to close it.& &example3=A commander in a defensive position receives a warning order to be prepared to counterattack if the enemy attacks again. He chooses to use pre-positioned ammunition caches to support his defense, as opposed to moving his ammunition resupply forward by truck. He determines that the severity of not having an immediate resupply of ammunition available during the counterattack will have a critical impact on his combat power.
He realizes that if the enemy forces him to abandon his forward positions, the severity of the loss of his ammunition caches will critically impact his combat power. He considers that his unit is deployed in excellent defensive positions. He has repelled two attacks that resulted in the destruction of an estimated 50 percent of the enemy’s combat power. He receives information that the probability of the enemy attacking is likely, but that the probability of the enemy being reinforced and attacking with overwhelming force is remote (seldom). The commander concludes that the risk of conducting a counterattack with limited ammunition is greater than the moderate risk of the enemy pushing him back. Click on this text box to close it. & &example4=A mechanized task force (TF) conducting a movement to contact in a desert environment is overtaken by nightfall before reaching its limit of advance (LOA). The terrain along the axis of advance is flat and open. Visibility is about 800 meters under a clear sky illuminated by a full moon. Estimates put the enemy, which has been hastily withdrawing for the past three days, at approximately 30 percent strength. Contact has been light with no defendable terrain along the TF’s axis. The TF commander considers all the factors. In addition, the TF is 100 percent operational in using night vision devices. The TF commander estimates that it is unlikely that his unit will incur losses of critical severity by being surprised by the enemy or lose critical combat power due to an accident. He estimates the risk to his force in continuing a nighttime movement is low. Click on this text box to close it.&